Predictions of Microsoft’s Doom
Every few months for the past few years someone decides to post their reasons why Microsoft is doomed. I’m not sure if they genuinely believe this or if it’s all just link-bait blogging. The latest is this list of 7 Reasons Why Microsoft is DOOMED! I’m going to go with linkbait given that the capitalization and the exclamation point are the blogger’s.
Do people really think that Microsoft is going to fold? They all say Microsoft is going down but don’t really let you know what going down is and the sensationalism of the post leads me to believe that they want you to think that Microsoft is going to not exist when their prediction comes true, what else are we to refer to when a company is DOOMED!? None of them account for the fact that Microsoft is sitting on $35 billion in cash. That’s right, they put that in a bank at 5% interest and they’re buying YouTube every year for the rest of their lives without selling one more copy of Windows.
With deep pockets like that they have some serious R&D going on. Take a look at Photosynth or Silverlight for two very promising technologies they’re putting out. Look at the XBOX, a product that nobody thought would survive, but there it is, they kept at it and Halo 3 may be the most anticipated game ever. Sure they’re having some troubles right now but that’s because they have a couple bozos at the top running them - if and when that changes, I suspect you’ll see Microsoft wake up and begin moving in a positive direction again.
These predictions of DOOM! always show how Microsoft lags it’s competitors. Google happens to be a big one, obviously. This most recent one cites that MS only has a couple cash cows and they aren’t taking down Google! Umm… Google doesn’t even have a couple cash cows. They have a cash cow. Dead end business model, is another one. First the assumption is that buying software is dead already and that everyone who’s anyone is going to software as a service. That is so obviously not yet a fact that it’s stunning. People still buy software and wide spread software as a service for many applications (especially office/business application that are customized) hasn’t happened. It could come to pass but maybe it doesn’t, do companies really want their critical functions to be hosted on someone else’s servers?
Related to that one is that they aren’t doing any Web2.0 stuff, and if you aren’t web2.0 you’re nothing. Sigh. Assuming that this is true (which I disagree with) it’s not like there’s a huge startup cost to get into web2.0 (as demonstrated by the tons of web2.0 startups) so if they get new leadership in they can easily catch up in this department. [deleted a section because I'm a dumbass and misread the original post! doh]
I’ve got no love for Microsoft. I think they put out crappy products that are consumer unfriendly. I think they make decisions that make the world a worse place. They are certainly not a rising star any more and I suspect that they peaked awhile ago and are on the way down - they obviously don’t have the influence they once had and are unlikely to get it back. Nevertheless, they aren’t doomed, they aren’t going anywhere - they’ll always be a big player in the space, just not the only player anymore. That’s what happens to companies. The same thing happened to IBM - are they gone? No. But IBM is big enough to always be cited in these predictions as well.
November 14th, 2007 at 12:08 am
Totally agree with you that Microsoft is not doomed. However, is their reign of terror over and will Google be the dominant force? http://fishtrain.com/2007/11/13/the-downfall-of-the-microsoft-empire/
November 14th, 2007 at 7:57 am
Jesse, yup, it’s been a long time since Microsoft was the 800lb gorilla. I think for years, in fact, there hasn’t been an 800lb gorilla, but several 200lb gorillas. It’s an interesting time right now where there’s a lot of forces struggling to dominate the industry the way Microsoft once did and so far it isn’t happening - which, in my opinion, is great!
btw, I love the “school of thought” tagline. :)