Myspace v. Facebook

Just read some analysis on the latest Hitwise traffic trends for social networking sites (thank god they have not succumbed to the newly blogger blessed “social graph”). Here’s the big reveal:

So you can see that MySpace still owns 72% of the traffic compared to Facebook’s 16%. From this Mr. Kirkpatrick argues that Facebook is getting way too much hype and that MySpace is where everyone actually is. He offers a possible reason that it’s a classist thing where people go to Facebook because they think everyone’s into it as way to get into yuppie pocket books.

I find all this analysis strange. For me, I think this Facebook mania really came into its own last year when it opened it’s API - its previous changes, opening up to high schoolers and then everyone, was just the warm up. So, it’s had less than a year of ramping up time - and in that span it’s grown 50% and that’s real growth from a respectably sized user base, not growth from a tiny user base. It’s building momentum and while it’s had some privacy setbacks, I suspect the outcry was larger than the actual offended user base would have suggested.

MySpace, on the other hand, is on a downward spiral. The AOL of social networks - it’s huge and as such remains a force. Nevertheless, in a time where social networking as a whole is growing and gathering steam it’s losing steam - that’s not a good sign. I think part of the reason for this is while Facebook being run by a 23 year old is problematic in that he’s a bit of a cocky douchebag, in fact he understands social networking much more intuitively than say, Rupert Murdoch. He may not understand why people don’t want him to make tons of money off of their privacy, but he does get what makes social networks work.

He then cites his discovery that Microsoft is sponsoring every music player on the site with Zune. He suspects that it’s causing more Zunes to be sold than ever and can’t find any reporting on the deal. On one hand he’s right, it’s surprising that no one is talking about it, but on the other hand, going by Amazon’s bestseller list where the first and only Zune you come across is at #24, perhaps it is a counterpoint to what he’s trying to say.

He also suggests that the excitement about Facebook is “grounded in the perception that it’s the Junior LinkedIn - the path to yuppie pockets.” I’m not sure what he’s getting at. That me and my friends have joined Facebook not to connect with each other, but actually to get at each other’s money? Or that developers are there and not at MySpace not because, well you can’t actually develop anything for MySpace yet, but because they’re trying to *gasp* make money??

Lastly he plays the race card by wondering how often the press pays attention to blackplanet. Well… how often does the press pay attention to club penguin or gaiaonline or myyearbook? The class and the race conclusion to this piece are huge stretches of imagination, as far as I can see.

TechCrunch offers a differing view as well, they base their views on a ComScore’s view of traffic - which paints a much closer horse race between the two networks. As far as I know, and I could be wrong, ComScore uses panel sampling to get at its data where HitWise uses network gathering partnering with as many ISP’s as it can get its hands on. I’m more inclined to trust HitWise’s numbers than ComScore’s, but there you go.

I think it’s clear that Facebook’s star is rising and MySpace’s is falling and that all the coverage around Facebook is happening not because of some classist prejudice but because Facebook is actually doing and trying new things (for better of for worse) or that 3rd parties are doing and trying new things on Facebook and MySpace isn’t changing much at all. The few times MySpace launches a new product or section - it gets duly covered, it just doesn’t happen very frequently, whereas something is happening on Facebook all the time. Even when it isn’t about Facebook, it’s about Hasbro stupidly cease and desisting some of the most popular apps on the site.

Jan 17th, 2008 · Comments RSS · · · · · Tags: social networks