Facebook Fatigue?

I was reading that Register article on the downward trend of the big social networks. It uses some comscore numbers that show that time spent on the networks (MySpace, Bebo & co.) is down. Leaving aside that time spent on site is pretty inaccurate, it may be a reasonable apples to apples comparison. I would have liked to have seen the 2006 numbers to compare the month to month trends, but taking everything at face value… does it really signal the end?

I think the key part of the Register’s article was this:

if the cash isn’t raining down on you you need a “phenomenal” growth line to sell credulous reporters and investors.

That’s the big story, but we all knew it anyway. Everyone, everyone, knew that Microsoft’s big valuation of Facebook was ridiculous. As with everything Web2.0 investors aren’t looking for companies to actually make money, they’re looking for big traffic and big growth. I’d be curious to see (although it’s almost impossible to find out) whether any of the big web2.0 stories from the past few years are even breaking even? (just a peeve of mine, given how everyone jumps on print media because they aren’t embracing the “obvious” web2.0 model)

I don’t think it’s over for the social networks, I think that they need to deflate their expectations as people come to understand what they are good and fun for and get over the initial novelty of sending vampire bites to their friends. Personally, I’d like to see a more distributed (P2P style) social networking model come into place. But anyway, people will still head over to Facebook and MySpace to keep their friends and family updated. Maybe play some games and what not. To carry on as though they can maintain their exponential growth seems crazy.

I think that MySpace has already given up on that idea and is settling down and figuring out how to actually try and make some money for their large, but also largely stagnant, user base - AOL style. Facebook on the other hand is flush with all its new investment cash and seems a little bit crazy to me. Given the latest reporting on Zuckerberg’s plans for 2008 - he wants to more than double the size of the company to 1000 employees, spend $200 million on capital expenditures and lose $150 million for the company - I wonder if Facebook is heading for a big flame out.

I’m curious to see the effect of the various sites getting the various API treatments. If more sites adopt the Facebook API what effect, if any, will it have on traffic and engagement? Will it really increase the number of applications available? Will they be good enough to bring new people on? If OpenSocial happens and works as advertised will it drastically change the landscape?

My suspicion on all these is that it won’t do much to drive growth in the short term. But if OpenSocial lives up to it’s own hype it could be the beginning of a more distributed social network that could let people put their profiles in the place that’s perfect for them while at the same time keep in touch with their friends and families in a heterogeneous network. I mean, why can’t I just place all those widgets on this blog and you on facebook and him on linked in and we all just get our updates and what not where we want?

Feb 5th, 2008 · Comments RSS · · · · · Tags: social networks