Google shows off Android alpha

So you know I’m an Android skeptic. I’d love to see it, I just have doubts that a huge coalition, including the carriers, could pull it off if they wanted to and suspect that the carriers are less interested in most in having this succeed. But who knows… stranger things have happened.

There was a video buzzing around the matrix showing Android running on some reference hardware showing off some interface stuff and looking at Google Street View (which is pretty sweet). Again, this is good news, but by no means a guarantor that Android will see the light of day. Remember PalmOS Cobalt? We saw a cobalt alpha, too…

Obviously, Google is Google and Palm was Palm Source (and Palm), so there’s a major difference there. But I was just reading some anecdotal (and as far as I can tell unsupported) evidence that Mozilla’s efforts to break into the mobile world is being blocked by the carriers. I tend to believe it and would not at all be surprised to hear that that’s true. It isn’t in their financial interest to allow people free and unfettered access to the interent - they love their revenue streams that they get from limiting access. Plus all the bandwidth that they aren’t using because it’s so hard to access anything.

Now sure, one could say that AT&T is already proving this wrong. That they’re reaping wonders by giving iPhone users Mobile Safari and caving into all Apple’s demands in an unprecedented fashion. And that this should have all the carriers scrambling to become competitive, so they should be welcoming Android and Mozilla. One could say that, but I’d guess that one would be wrong.

Sure all those things are true but keep this in mind, AT&T is really benefiting from the iPhone - they’re getting a metric tonne of new subscribers and some of Apple’s cool may be rubbing off on them. The iPhone is a differentiator for them and it’s bringing people in droves. Android and Mobile Firefox want to make some of those features common across everyone - it won’t be a differentiator, it will be a… commoniator. There won’t be a whiz-bang handset that will make people flock to the carrier, it will be on all the carriers, they will simply have lost whatever revenue they used to get from limiting access and people will be using up a lot more of their bandwidth.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that this isn’t in the carriers long term best interests and the interests of their customers. It is also almost certainly inevitable. I’m just saying that the carriers can’t be relishing the thought and are most likely dragging their feet on all fronts. T-Mobile or Verizon or whoever, much more than an Android, I’m sure, would rather someone create a kick ass iPhone killer that they can then get an exclusive deal with than see Android pushed out to the world. Here’s my guess… Android comes out after major delays only to see very slow uptake.

Mar 3rd, 2008 · Comments RSS · · · · · Tags: gphone · telephony