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Despite that fact that I don’t own a Kindle, I’ve long been a proponent of the e-reader. I think like the iPod it’s created a real market out of a moribund niche that was withering on the vine – perhaps that market is smaller and less vibrant in potential than the music market, but it’s there nevertheless. Everyone I know or who I’ve read got one, even the skeptics, ultimately ends up loving it – even at the strangely expensive price point that Amazon’s got it at.

At this instant – it could be argued that the market still doesn’t fully exist and the whole thing could still easily go down. Amazon has a lot of books out but there’s still a ton that aren’t available – in fact, as I look around for some books I’d like to get on it, they aren’t in the library which is why I don’t have one yet. Also, while the Kindle is a top seller – in absolute numbers, there most likely aren’t too many Kindles out in the world yet. It’s still being built up.

I’m arguing, though, that that’s wrong – that this thing has already arrived and is going to succeed. The market is made and now it’s just taking some time to mature. The reason for this is that I see a lot of competition trying to get started up – and the interesting thing is that this competition is coming not from technology companies, but from publishers and distributors.

The first one happened a bit ago and was Hearst’s statement that they’re working on something. While, I honestly don’t have high hopes for this device, the implication is that Hearst, a huge publisher, sees both a threat and the future in the Kindle and is moving to try and ensure that they have a larger say in that future than simply a client of Amazon’s.

The next one is a more recent rumor, but again one that makes sense. Barnes and Noble seems to be trying to get into the game. Again, B&N isn’t a technology company – they’re a distribution company that sees the business effect of Amazon’s Kindle and how it is going to grow larger in the future taking business away from the current shipping of paper everywhere. They need to do something that simply doesn’t cede the whole market to Amazon.

In both cases, these are businesses that are part of the industry that the Kindle is going to disrupt. They see what’s going on and feel threatened enough to need to build their own competitor to Amazon. Interestingly enough all these devices are taking the same tack that Amazon’s Whispernet pioneered with free wireless connection. These are all attempting to be direct competitors to the Kindle. Hearst’s take is more novel with a goal of a whitebox type device that other publishers can take and brand on their own. B&N’s seems more directly comparable.

In my head I’ve compared and contrasted this to the years long love of the technology company with tablet computing. Here’s a product that no one but tech companies thinks that the world needs and they’ve kept trying to make them over the years. But the market simply refuses to be made – tech companies simply don’t represent consumer needs. The innovation isn’t coming from any company in touch with consumers about what they’re looking for, it’s just something that tech companies would like people to like.

The latest rumor that Apple’s trying to get into this could be the most reasonable entry to tablet computing – with Apple being a very consumer friendly company. Even here, though, I don’t believe a tablet in the sense of a largish screen, general computing device is going to be successful. Nobody wants it, in actuality. But who knows.

Anyhow, I think the admission of Hearst and B&N that the Kindle is getting ready to bust a cap in their industry reveals the writing on the wall. It’s happening boys and girls and I for one am looking forward to it. How much more awesome is it to buy music online, download it immediately and be listening to it in minutes. Sure, I don’t get a liner book any more, sure maybe the quality isn’t quite as good, but for most people, most the time digital is more convenient and easier to work with.