iPad had nothing to do with netbooks’ sales dive
- 2010-05-06
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- apple laptops rant
Argh. So, fortune just published their “How the iPad gobbles up netbook sales” where they try to show how the iPad has killed off the netbook. The problem with this is that, from the data they post in the article, it’s not true at all. My analysis of that chart is that what killed off the netbook was everyone realizing the inherent crappiness of netbooks. Capisco?
No?
Ok. Look at the stupid chart they post:
Now, as the article itself states, Jobs announced the iPad on January 27th. So essentially, the iPad couldn’t really have had an effect on the mass market, mainstream netbook market until – as far as the graph is concerned – february. That’s the last 3 bars. What about the 7 bars before that one? What do they show?
Yes, what they show is a steep, massive drop off, starting from it’s peak in July 2009 and dropping off during the holiday shopping season all the way through the new year. I’m just saying, that’s not the iPad – that’s netbooks sucking it.
Sure they lamely try and put that whole “intent” thing at the bottom where “44% of U.S. consumers who were planning to buy an iPad said that they were buying it instead of a netbook or notebook computer.” I mean, that’s not even purely a netbook statement – and it still doesn’t address the huge and massive falloff existing for many, many months prior to the announcement.
My last beef is that the chart is showing YOY growth without really showing absolute numbers or last years. I mean… was there a huge spike in the holiday season last year? so it’s easy to show bigger YOY growth in the summer before the shopping season? Were there gigantic sales just post holiday season to boost purchasing? Really, to attribute any sort of analysis to netbook sales solely on the basis of that chart – you have to make a lot of really big assumptions. Which I was happy to do above, just because – but when you get right down to it – the chart is largely meaningless without context or absolute numbers.
I’m just sayin’. But I genuinely believe that netbooks time in the sun is over because it was never a good product. Also that the pre-announcement of the iPad in January of a product launch in 6 months could not have had such a dramatic chilling effect on sales that we assume happened. What do you think?
